– The absence of stronger gains this week means bonds remain inside their short-term uptrend (see chart)
– 100% focus on UMBS 2.5 coupon (why?)
– “lower high” yield yesterday and again so far today (keeps hope alive), but…
– Conversely, no strong commitment to rallying so far this week.
– Net effect: sideways and range-bound for now–perhaps even until Thursday’s Powell appearance or possibly even Friday’s jobs report
If yields can manage to rally below the lower yellow line and close in stronger territory for 2 consecutive days, it would present a strong case for the end of this short-term uptrend. That sort of bullish breakout typically presents 2 choices: carve out a new, sideways range or begin a new, short-term rally trend. The latter would probably require some assistance from a friendly Fed, weaker data, or other significant fundamental development.
- Matthew Graham
- Mortgage News Daily